X-Prize
by Geoff Canham, LUNAR #493
Construction work is now well under way on the International Space Station, but unfortunately it won't be opening for visits by the general public. However, would the idea of space tourism appeal to you? Surveys indicate that around 70% of the population would be interested in taking a trip into space, although what people envisaged by that term may have differed from person to person.
It will be a considerable time before vacations on Mars, or even on the Moon, become available. A Japanese journalist effectively became a space tourist when Japan paid Russia for him to spend a few days aboard the Mir space station, but for the average person the only thing available currently is a "space experience." For instance, a number of companies will offer to take you to the edge of space in a Mig jet fighter, or give you an experience of weightlessness aboard a plane flying parabolic trajectories (do you feel like flying aboard a Vomit Comet?). But other companies are willing to take a deposit from you right now for an actual flight into space. And you shouldn't have to wait too long for the flight, even if it is only a suborbital one, similar to Alan Shepherd's mission aboard Freedom-7.
The X-Prize organization (www.xprize.org) is offering a prize of $10 million (half of which is currently available) for the first person or organization to operate a vehicle carrying three people on a suborbital flight, and then repeat the operation with the same vehicle within three weeks. The aim is to boost space tourism, and their web site currently shows 15 entrants in the competition to win the prize. Of those entrants, one design is not revealed, five are similar to traditional rockets, and the remainder are more like space-going aircraft. And most of them expect (or hope) to be operating within a couple of years.
It is always risky to predict the future, but it looks as though suborbital flights should be available around the beginning of the new millennium, probably costing around $50,000 per flight, but with the fare dropping to around $3,000 (in current dollars) over the following five years or so. Orbital flights should become available to the general public about two years after suborbital flights, and the fare will probably be around $100,000, dropping to $5,000 over a period of about 10 years. When orbital flights are available, the market will open up for space hotels. The first space hotels will probably be around the size of a Boeing 747, housing about 40 guests, with more advanced designs following as the market builds.
Above are two of the proposed designs for the X-Prize competition, both of which should be very easy to make flying models of. I have modeled both (and a few of the other designs), but as static display models only. But with the next F/F (Future/Fiction) Scale contest coming up, some of our modelers might be looking for possible designs, and the X-Prize presents a number of options.
Copyright © 1999 by LUNAR, All rights reserved.
Information date: May 26, 1999 lk